Thursday, June 30, 2011

UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber, My Predictions

Dominick Cruz vs Urijah Faber:
Dominick Cruz has improved drastically since their first fight. He has spent the last four years training out of Alliance with fighters such as Brandon Vera, Phil Davis, and Ben Henderson. Faber on the other hand has continued to train with his camp at Alpha Male with fighters like Joseph Benavidez (who Dominick has defeated twice in his current seven fight win streak) and Chad Mendes.

I see this fight resembling Cruz vs Benavidez II. In that fight it was obvious the Alpha Male had properly dissected Cruz's game and trained against some of his favorite tools, such as the knee tap take down, but the end result was the same.

Like in recent fights, Cruz is going to be moving constantly and Faber isn't going to be able to catch him. Cruz will strike and move, and Faber will avoid most hits but not all as I believe Cruz will be slightly faster. Both fighters will have several take down attempts but I doubt either will be able to keep it on the ground for longer than a few seconds. Cruz will stick and move to a decision.
Pick: Dominick Cruz (Unanimous Decision (and he'll be on the poster))

Chris Leben vs Wanderlei Silva
I've been a fan of both guys for so long. Of Wand since his legendary title run in Pride, and of Leben since The Ultimate Fighter (I'm probably the only fan he had after that show for a while). Like most people, I think this is going to end in the first round, and as sad as it makes me to say, I see Wand getting knocked out. This is not a mixed martial arts contest, this is a brawl, a real fight. When Wand brawls, he takes shots to swing his own shots and I don't think at this point in his career he's going to be able to take Leben's shots. Watch the Wanderlei vs Bisping fight again, and notice every time Wand swings he catches a shot to the jaw. Imagine if it wasn't pillow-fisted Bisping throwing the shots. Whether I'm wrong or not, I'm going to be kicked back in my chair enjoying this fight.
Pick: Chris Leben (Knockout)

Tito Ortiz vs Ryan Bader
I admit that I was one of the few hopefuls that believed Ortiz was going to come back better than ever after his surgeries, and I admit that I was wrong. Ortiz's hands are barely better than what they were, and considering how bad they were, it's not saying much. Also, I don't see Ortiz being able to take Bader down.

Bader is going to stuff Ortiz's few take down attempts and it's going to discourage Ortiz. Ortiz will try to box and get tagged a few times by Bader's superior power. This fight was made for Bader.
Pick: Ryan Bader (Unanimous Decision)

Carlos Condit vs Dong Hyun Kim
I'm pretty biased when it comes to this fight. Condit is one of my favorite fighters, up there with Hendo and Gegard Mousasi. That being said, no one can deny that Condit is one of the best fighters in the UFC. He's a finisher and never quits. This fight will also resemble a previous fight, I believe. Carlos Condit vs Rory MacDonald.

There's no doubt in my mind Kim is going to get the take down. More than one take down. There is also no doubt in my mind that Condit will make him pay for every single one of those take downs. I think Kim's submission defense will be good enough to get out of near submissions, but not good enough that he'll be confident after escaping and he'll let Condit up a few times where Condit will crack him with knees and elbows. It will become a war of nutrition and once Kim is exhausted Condit will pound him out late in the third round for a TKO victory.
Pick: Carlos Condit (TKO)

Dennis Siver vs Matt Wiman
Siver by spinning back kick to the liver. Second round. Followed up by ground and pound for the TKO victory.
Pick: Dennis Siver (TKO)

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